Latest COVID 🦠
We publish the latest COVID data available every day using the data from the ZOE COVID Study, the ONS Infection Survey, and the UKHSA to understand what is still happening with the pandemic.
We publish the latest COVID data available every day using the data from the ZOE COVID Study, the ONS Infection Survey, and the UKHSA to understand what is still happening with the pandemic.
S ince February 2022, the UKHSA has slowly reduced the publishing of its daily COVID updates, following the UK Government’s narrative that we should all “live with the virus”. They now report only once a week, on Thursdays. We, at PMP Magazine, have decided to continue to publish the latest COVID data available every day using the data from the ZOE COVID Study and the ONS Infection Survey to understand what is still happening with the pandemic.
▪ The Latest
According to the latest data from the ZOE COVID Study, the current positive symptomatic case estimate is 91,387 new cases.
ZOE LATEST DETAILS
▪ Latest estimate: 91,387 new cases (+20.6% vs last week)
▪ 7-Day estimate: 607,882 cases (+14.6% vs last week)
▪ Predicted to currently have symptomatic COVID: 1,024,860 people (+24.0%)
PMP LATEST ESTIMATE OF ESTIMATES
▪ Average daily estimate as of 31-Jan-2023: 70,586 new cases (-7.3% in a week)
◦ CASE ANALYSIS
Winter has well and truly arrived, and with it comes the second COVID winter wave. Worryingly, today 91,387 cases were reported – a five-day consecutive increase. This is obviously a cause for concern and serves to remind us that we need to take extra precautions if we are to keep ourselves safe from the virus.
The most important precaution of all is wearing a face mask in any crowded area. Masks help reduce the spread of droplets when talking or breathing. If you are eligible, getting your booster jab is another great way to protect yourself against the virus. When at home or at work, it is essential to make sure there is adequate ventilation. Poor air circulation increases the risk of viral transmission – so open a window whenever possible.
The pandemic is not yet over.
◦ INFECTION ANALYSIS
Professor Tim Spector, who leads the ZOE COVID Study, explains that as is typical after a school holiday, children returning to school in January have been a primary factor in the recent spike in COVID-19 cases. They typically contract the virus a week before other age groups, and this pattern is being repeated, with the virus spreading to other age groups as a result.
Other contributing factors include the cold weather, which encourages people to stay indoors, and the multiple variants of the virus currently circulating in the UK.
◦ VARIANT ANALYSIS
According to the ONS, since the end of June 2022, most COVID-19 infections in the UK have been Omicron variant BA.5 or its sub-lineages, more recently the majority of which were the sub-lineage BQ.1.
However, in the week ending 22 January 2023, BA.2.75 and its sub-lineages (that includes XBB and its sub-lineages, and CH.1.1 and its sub-lineages) comprised the largest proportion of all sequenced infections at 53.3%. The sub-lineage CH.1.1 and its sub-lineages comprised 27.1%, and the sub-lineage XBB and its sub-lineages (including XBB.1.5) comprised 20.3%, of sequenced infections in the week ending 22 January 2023. The variant BQ.1 comprised 36.6%, and other BA.5 variants (and sub-lineages, excluding BQ.1) comprised 8.6%, of all sequenced COVID-19 infections.
◦ COVID DEATH ANALYSIS
🕯️ 16,100 children in the UK have experienced COVID-associated orphanhood since the beginning of the pandemic
🚨 A tragedy barely mentioned in the media
The UK experienced a total of 659 COVID-related deaths in the week ending 27 January, a decrease of 25.3% from the previous week. This translates to an average of 94 deaths per day, or one death every 15 minutes.
The breakdown of these fatalities is 545 deaths in England, 33 in Wales, 54 in Scotland, and 26 in Northern Ireland. These figures are a stark reminder of the ongoing severity of the pandemic and the importance of following public health guidelines.
The devastating magnitude of the COVID-19 pandemic is made abundantly clear by the UK’s staggering death toll, which has now reached an alarming 217,705 since the start of 2020. This figure serves as a stark reminder of the severity of this global crisis.
MORE COVID DATA:
- ⏰ Latest Guidance
- 📖 LexiCOV
- 📌 Must-Read
- 🧬 Variants News
- 🏫 Education
- 💉 Vaccination Data
- 🧩 Long COVID
- 📄 Additional Data
- 📚 Data Sources
covid data summary
Reminder on data reporting in the UK
▫ Since 1 July 2022, the COVID-19 UKHSA Dashboard has moved to weekly reporting. From 8 September 2022, updates take place on Thursdays.
▫ The reporting of ZOE COVID Study data has remained daily.
▫ The reporting of ONS Infection Survey data has remained weekly with a 7-day lag.
ZOE COVID Study Estimates
■ Daily Estimated Cases
(Note: ZOE daily new cases are updated daily at 9am and based on PCR and LFT test data as of 2 days ago.)
ONS Infection Survey Estimates
■ Weekly Estimates of Cases
Weekly Estimate of Estimates
ONS Weekly COVID-19 Recorded Deaths
■ Deaths involving COVID-19 in the UK
Latest COVID-19 Records
■ COVID England data trends, by Dr Joe Pajak
guidance
■ UK Government’s List of symptoms of COVID-19
After two years without updating its list of just three symptoms of COVID-19 (a high temperature, a new continuous cough and a loss or change to the sense of smell or taste), the NHS has finally updated its list of symptoms of COVID:
😩 Shortness of breath
🥱 Feeling tired or exhausted
🤕 An aching body
🤯 A headache
🤐 A sore throat
🤧 A blocked or runny nose
😞 Loss of appetite
🥴 Diarrhoea
🤮 Feeling sick or being sick
In the United States, since November 2022, the FDA recommends that if you are exhibiting symptoms of COVID-19, you should undergo serial testing. This involves taking a lateral flow test, waiting 48 hours, taking another lateral flow test, and then taking a final test after another 48 hours. The FDA also requires that this guidance be included on the packaging of the tests.
📥 Take a LFT test
⏳ If the result is negative, wait 48 hours
📥 Take another LFT test
⏳ If the result is negative, wait agains 48 hours
📥 Take a final LFT test
◦ SYMPTOMS ANALYSIS
It is essential to be aware of the changing nature of the virus and its symptoms. The symptoms of COVID-19 have drastically changed since the emergence of the Omicron strain and its subsequent variants.
While the Zoe COVID Study has identified sore throat, runny nose, blocked nose, sneezing, headache, and coughing as the primary symptoms of the virus, Professor Tim Spector has noted that fever is now less likely to be indicative of COVID-19, suggesting that it may be a symptom of the flu instead.
■ Top symptoms of COVID-19 (as of 2-Jan-2023)
ZOE COVID Study
lexiCOV
Airborne Transmission
- Throughout much of 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) held tight to the idea that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, spreads through relatively large ‘respiratory’ droplets that are expelled by infected people while coughing, sneezing or speaking. These droplets contaminate nearby surfaces or get breathed in, so the WHO stressed the importance of washing hands and disinfecting surfaces. It took many months for the agency to acknowledge that the virus could travel on tiny particles called aerosols that can spread widely and linger in the air. And nearly two years passed before the WHO clearly stated that the virus is airborne.
(Source: Nature)
COVID-19
- The WHO announced “COVID-19” as the name of this new disease on 11 February 2020, following guidelines previously developed with the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).
(Source: World Health Organization)
COVID & Immune System
- The COVID-19 virus (SARS-CoV-2) actually has the ability to actively suppress and hide from multiple parts of your immune system. Even if you have been vaccinated or previously infected, some immune cells that were trained to identify the virus will not see that your cells are infected because the virus can turn off the early warning system of the infected cell to call for help.
(Source: PMP Magazine)
COVID Transmission & Protection
- When you breathe, talk, cough, sing, exercise or anything else that involves exhaling, particles (aerosols) get released into the air that contain contents from your respiratory tract, including viruses that you may be infected with that are replicating there. Exercise and singing produce large amounts of aerosols from your mouth which is why you often heard about superspreader events in choirs and gyms.
(Source: PMP Magazine)
COVID Rebound
- COVID rebound occurs when a person who has COVID-19 tests negative, then within two to eight days has a recurrence of symptoms or a new positive test. A brief return of symptoms may be part of the natural history of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) infection in some persons, independent of treatment with Paxlovid and regardless of vaccination status.
(Source: CDC)
Long COVID
- Most people with coronavirus (COVID-19) feel better within a few days or weeks of their first symptoms and make a full recovery within 12 weeks. For some people, symptoms can last longer. This is called long COVID or post COVID-19 syndrome.
- The most common symptoms of long COVID are:
▫ extreme tiredness (fatigue)
▫ shortness of breath
▫ loss of smell
▫ muscle aches
- However, there are lots of symptoms you can have after a COVID-19 infection, including:
▫ problems with your memory and concentration ("brain fog")
▫ chest pain or tightness
▫ difficulty sleeping (insomnia)
▫ heart palpitations
▫ dizziness
▫ pins and needles
▫ joint pain
▫ depression and anxiety
▫ tinnitus, earaches
▫ feeling sick, diarrhoea, stomach aches, loss of appetite
▫ a high temperature, cough, headaches, sore throat, changes to sense of smell or taste
▫ rashes
(Source: NHS)
Repeat Infections
- In a study published in Nature Medicine, researchers report that COVID-19 reinfections could be taking a toll on some important organ systems. That risk applies to both short-term and long-term health effects. People who had more than one COVID-19 infection were three times more likely to be hospitalized and twice as likely to die than those who only had one infection. Those with multiple infections were also more vulnerable to other dangerous conditions; they were 3.5 times more likely to develop lung problems, 3 times more likely to have heart conditions, and 1.6 times more likely to have brain changes requiring care than people who had only had COVID-19 once. (See the table)
(Source: Time)
SARS-CoV-2
- The International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses (ICTV) announced “severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)” as the name of the new virus on 11 February 2020. This name was chosen because the virus is genetically related to the coronavirus responsible for the SARS outbreak of 2003. While related, the two viruses are different.
(Source: World Health Organization)
Variant
- A variant is a viral genome (genetic code) that may contain one or more mutations. In some cases, a group of variants with similar genetic changes, such as a lineage or group of lineages, may be designated by public health organizations as a Variant Being Monitored (VBM), Variant of Concern (VOC) or a Variant of Interest (VOI) due to shared attributes and characteristics that may require public health action.
(Source: CDC)
Variant Recombination
- A process in which the genomes of two SARS-CoV-2 variants (that have infected a person at the same time) combine during the viral replication process to form a new variant that is different from both parent lineages.
(Source: CDC)
must-read
must-watch
variant news
■ 🧬 COG-UK sequencing
Summary of names:
— T. Ryan Gregory (@TRyanGregory) December 28, 2022
BA.2 lineage:
* XBB = Gryphon (= recombinant between BJ.1 x BM.1.1.1)
* XBB.1 = Hippogryph
* XBB.1.5 = Kraken
* CH.1.1 = Orthrus
BA.5 lineage:
* BQ.1 = Typhon
* BQ.1.1 = Cerberus
* BF.7 = Minotaur
vaccination
💉 Latest UK Vaccination
(Source: UK Health Security Agency + Public Health Wales
+ Public Health Scotland + HSC NI + ONS)
Note: Data cross-referenced with the latest official data from the UK dashboard.
PMP Xtra
Total UK population: 67,081,234 (last year: 66,796,800), via ONS (subject to changes in population over the year). These figures were updated on 25 June 2021. (Source: ONS)
long covid
🧩 Long COVID
🚨 2 million people currently live with long COVID in the UK (vs 2.1 million last month | -4.7%)
🚨 3% of the UK population currently live with long COVID (vs 3.3%)
🚨 Long COVID symptoms still adversely affect the day-to-day activities of 1.5 million people, 77% of long COVID sufferers (vs 1.6 million)
🚨 Of those, 380,000 people (19%) are “limited a lot” (vs 389,000)
🚨 612,000 (31%) first had COVID-19 before Alpha became the main variant; 251,000 (13%) in the Alpha period, 337,000 (17%) in the Delta period, and 702,000 (36%) in the Omicron period.
🚨 Most common symptoms of long COVID
▫ fatigue (71%) ▲
▫ difficulty concentrating (52%) ▲
▫ shortness of breath (48%) ▲
▫ muscle ache (47%) ▲
🚨 Prevalence of long COVID is greatest in people
▫ aged 35-69 years
▫ females
▫ living in more deprived areas
▫ working in social care
▫ aged 16+ not working and not looking for work
▫ with another activity-limiting health condition or disability
Long COVID Must-Read
- Government scientist accuses ministers of throwing people with long Covid ‘under the bus’ | iNews
- Why You Should Rest—a Lot—If You Have COVID-19 | Time
- Long COVID stigma may encourage people to hide the condition | PMP Magazine
- How will long Covid play out over the coming years? Eight experts weigh in | The Guardian
- First They Got Long Covid. Then, It Made Them Homeless | Rolling Stones
- ‘I wouldn’t wish this on my worst enemy’: Long Covid is the UK’s hidden pandemic – and treatment is a postcode lottery | Metro
- More than 1m people report long Covid in UK a year after infection | The Guardian
- New survey suggests reinfection worsens Long COVID | Gavi
- One of Long COVID’s Worst Symptoms Is Also Its Most Misunderstood | The Atlantic
- Study finds link between poor mental health and long Covid | The Guardian
- We’re starting to understand long COVID. Next we can fight it | Los Angeles Times
- Long Covid risk extends two years after infection. Here's how to assess your risk | CNN
- Long COVID: Why it’s so hard to tell how many people get it | PMP Magazine
(*Based on a total UK cohort of 67,081,234 individuals.)
education
■ Absence & Attendance in Schools
additional data
■ Weekly New Hospital Admissions for COVID-19 (per million)
■ Total Cases & Total Deaths
■ Orphanhood in the UK
🕯️ Number of children in the UK who have experienced COVID-associated orphanhood since the beginning of the pandemic
🚨 A tragedy barely mentioned in the media
(Source: Imperial College London)
■ Orphanhood in the World
🕯️ Number of children globally who have experienced COVID-associated orphanhood since the beginning of the pandemic
(Source: Imperial College London)
■ Estimated ®️ Number
After almost three years, the UK Health Security Agency will stop publishing COVID modelling data, including the virus’s R number from 6 January 2023.
(Sources: UK Health Security Agency + Welsh Government
+ Scottish Government + N-I Ministry of Health + UK Health Security Agency)
■ Population Testing Positive for COVID-19
(Source: ONS)
■ Number of contact tracing alerts sent (England & Wales)
(Source: NHS)
■ Stringency Index
(Source: University of Oxford)
data sources
📚 Data Sources:
- Daily summary: Coronavirus in the UK | UK Government
- Coronavirus (COVID-19) NHS Advice | PMP Magazine
- Variants: distribution of cases data | UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA)
- Vaccination Data | UK Government
- What’s new | UK Government
Our reporting strategy
Since 27 July we don’t publish the UKHSA data in our daily reporting. Those figures are just conveniently and undoubtedly flawed. Instead, we now focus on the ZOE COVID Study and the ONS Infection Survey data.
Our readers deserve the truth about COVID-19 and the UK government has clearly been doing everything – from ending free tests to irregular dashboard reports, delaying and ending some data reports – to make sure the media slowly lose interest in COVID reporting and get the public to believe both that they can live with the virus and that the pandemic is over. This is wrong and untrue, as the WHO and most public health experts have repeatedly told us.
For these reasons, PMP Magazine has so far, and will continue to publish COVID daily updates because we see it as part of our mission to always report the truth, even if it means we are the last media in the UK to do so.
While others are sleepwalking to hide the inconvenient truth about COVID-19, PMP Magazine isn’t giving up! Our daily report is free and accessible to all.
Please support our work with a donation: PMP-Magazine.com/crowdfunding
COVID is not over.
— AUTHOR —
▫ J.N. PAQUET, Author & Journalist, Editor of PMP Magazine. |
— CONTRIBUTOR —
▫ Dr Joe Pajak, PhD in physical chemistry. Special interests: science, maths, data, education, disability, diversity, the NHS & social care, the homeless & vulnerable, the environment; governor of an NHS FT hospital.. |
Sources
▪ Text: This piece is being updated on a daily basis.
▪ Data cross-referenced with the latest official data from the UK dashboard.
▪ Cover: Adobe Stock/SergeyBitos.
▪ Icons from www.flaticon.com
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